PL previews: Newcastle vs Liverpool, Leeds vs Man City & more

Team news, stats, predictions and how to follow the Premier League this Saturday as Liverpool travel to Newcastle and Man City face Leeds, live on Sky Sports.

Newcastle vs Liverpool – Saturday, 12.30pm

Team news: Newcastle head coach Eddie Howe has no fresh selection problems ahead of Saturday’s Premier League clash with title-chasing Liverpool.

England full-back Kieran Trippier is back in training after recovering from a fractured metatarsal, but the game will come too soon for him, while striker Callum Wilson is not as far advanced as he works his way back from Achilles and calf injuries.

Scotland winger Ryan Fraser continues his recovery from a hamstring problem, with Howe admitting he does not know whether or not he will play for the club again this season.

Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino will miss the trip to St James’ Park as he has still not recovered from a foot injury which has seen him sit out the last three matches.

Left-back Kostas Tsimikas has returned to training after illness but midfielder Curtis Jones remains a doubt.

Centre-back Joel Matip, midfielder Naby Keita and forward Diogo Jota could all return as manager Jurgen Klopp rotates his team ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League semi-final second leg at Villarreal.

Jones Knows prediction…

Many Liverpool fans think this might just be THE game where Jurgen Klopp’s boys hand the title initiative firmly to Manchester City. It’s easy to see why. Since the turn of the year, only Liverpool have taken more Premier League points than the resurgent Toon.

That statistic alone will trigger plenty of interest in the Newcastle double chance selection (to win or draw) at 2/1 with Sky Bet.

It’s not a bet for me though. I’m in the Liverpool camp. This is a relentless team that have won 12 of their last 13 Premier League games.

Having watched most of Newcastle’s games under Eddie Howe, there is a case of overachievement on show here. Aggregate scores can be a pretty flimsy way of collating a strong opinion on a team but in their last 11 games where Newcastle have taken 25 points the aggregate score in those fixtures are just 16-11. That is backed up by the expected goals data which is eerily similar at 16.02-11.8.

This showcases that Howe’s team are winning matches by fine margins, meaning their current points per game ratio will be unsustainable in the short term. Howe has also faced all the top five teams since taking over and has lost all five games to an aggregate score of 15-2.

A Liverpool victory is the most likely outcome but Newcastle do have the defensive capabilities to make this a tricky task.

That previously mentioned 11.8 expected goals against figure does give Newcastle the third-best defensive process in the Premier League over their last 11 fixtures – only Liverpool and Manchester City are posting better numbers. In nine of those 11 fixtures, Newcastle have kept the opposition xG against process below 1.00 with only Brighton and Tottenham breaking that barrier.

With such two sturdy defences on show in this game and Klopp’s men in ‘job done mode’, there is plenty of juice in backing Liverpool to win a low-scoring encounter. Five of their last seven Premier League games have seen the Liverpool win and under 2.5 goals selection cop. It’s 3/1 with Sky Bet to go in again. That will do for me.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Liverpool to win and under 2.5 goals (3/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats…

  • Newcastle are winless in 10 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D4 L6), since a 2-0 victory in December 2015.
  • Liverpool are unbeaten in their last four Premier League away games against Newcastle (W2 D2) – only once have they gone five league games without defeat at St James’ Park, doing so between September 1961 and May 1969.
  • Just one of the 53 Premier League meetings between Newcastle and Liverpool have been drawn 0-0. Of all fixtures to have been played at least 40 times in the competition, only Newcastle vs Tottenham Hotspur has finished goalless on fewer occasions (0/54).
  • Newcastle have won each of their last four Premier League games, keeping three clean sheets in that run. The Magpies haven’t won five consecutive Premier League games since November 2014 under Alan Pardew, a run that included a 1-0 home win against Liverpool.
  • Liverpool have taken 37 points from their last 39 available in the Premier League (W12 D1 L0), keeping 10 clean sheets in that run. The Reds’ only dropped points in these 13 games came in a 2-2 draw at league leaders Manchester City.

How to follow: Follow Newcastle vs Liverpool in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel from 5.15pm.

Aston Villa vs Norwich – Saturday, 3pm

Team news: Bertrand Traore is available for Aston Villa’s clash with Norwich. The winger is back following a groin injury which forced him to miss the 0-0 draw at Leicester last week.

Morgan Sanson and Kortney Hause remain out for boss Steven Gerrard, who may name an unchanged side.

Norwich could have American forward Josh Sargent available again after an ankle problem for the trip to Villa Park.

Christoph Zimmermann has been ruled out after the German centre-half picked up a hip flexor problem, but midfielder Lukas Rupp (knee) has trained all week and is expected to return.

Scotland midfielder Kenny McLean is set to again play through the pain barrier with an injection in his fractured toe. Striker Adam Idah (knee), Andrew Omobamidele (back) and fellow defender Ozan Kabak (hamstring) remain long-term absentees.

Jones Knows prediction…

Norwich will be relegated if they lose here and Burnley win. Of all the places for Villa fan Dean Smith to fall through the trap door.

After Dan Burn came within a whisker of landing us a 40/1 first goalscorer winner last weekend against Norwich for Newcastle, it’s time to attack that angle again with Tyrone Mings. Of centre-backs to have played 2,000 minutes or more this season, only Joel Matip and Ethan Pinnock average a higher touches in the box per 90 minutes than Mings (1.73).

That ability to win the first contact has seen him post 21 shots on goal this season too, drawing an expected goals figure of 2.19 with his only actual goal coming against Brighton in November. He’s the value play at 40/1 to score first against a side that have faced the most shots and conceded the highest amount of expected goals from set-pieces this season.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Tyrone Mings to score first (40/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats…

  • Since winning their first Premier League away game against Aston Villa in November 1992 (3-2), Norwich are winless in their last eight top-flight visits to Villa Park (D3 L5).
  • Aston Villa are winless in their last five Premier League games (D1 L4), last having a longer such run between February and July 2020 (10 games).
  • The next goal they concede will see Norwich City become the first team to concede 70+ goals in three different Premier League campaigns, with the Canaries previously doing so in 2004-05 (77) and 2019-20 (75).
  • Norwich have the fewest shots (327), fewest shots on target (97), lowest shot conversion rate (6.7%) and lowest expected goals total (31.5) of all Premier League sides so far this season.
  • Norwich boss Dean Smith is looking to become the first manager to win against Aston Villa in the Premier League after previously having managed them in the competition – no manager has managed to beat the Villans in eight attempts (D2 L6), with Smith (one game), Martin O’Neill (two) and Ron Atkinson (five) all failing.

How to follow: Follow Aston Villa vs Norwich in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel from 5.15pm.

Southampton vs Crystal Palace – Saturday, 3pm

Team news: Southampton host Crystal Palace on Saturday without Tino Livramento following the defender’s ACL injury.

Livramento is expected to be out for the remainder of the calendar year after sustaining the knee damage in last weekend’s 2-2 draw at Brighton.

Saints boss Ralph Hasenhuttl otherwise has a full squad to select from. Goalkeeper Alex McCarthy has been back in training after a hamstring injury but is yet to return to first-team involvement.

Cheikhou Kouyate could return to the Crystal Palace starting line-up at St Mary’s. Kouyate has been a regular in the Palace midfield this season but he dropped to the bench for Monday’s goalless home draw with Leeds.

Michael Olise (foot) has shown no effects after coming on as a second-half substitute against Leeds, and Nathan Ferguson (hamstring) is the only Eagles’ absentee.

Jones Knows prediction…

In a very tight game when it comes to the match result markets, my punting instincts have taken me to the goals market in a Southampton game once again. If you have been backing the over goal-line in Saints games this season you will be swimming in profit and it’s not time to ditch that theory in a game involving two teams that can play with the shackles off.

There have been two goals or more in 26 of Southampton’s last 27 games across all competitions, producing an overall average of 3.3 goals per game. That is a fair sample size and one we should take huge confidence from when assessing the goal-line in this fixture. Plus, Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side have conceded 19 goals in their last eight Premier League games since the start of March – only Watford have shipped more. Palace can make this an end-to-end encounter.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Over 3.5 goals (5/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats…

  • Southampton have won 56% of their 25 Premier League games against Crystal Palace (W14 D7 L4) – of all sides they’ve faced at least 10 times in the competition, only against Swansea (58%) do they have a higher win rate.
  • Crystal Palace have won just one of their 12 Premier League away games against Southampton (D3 L8), winning 2-1 in January 2018. The Eagles have never kept an away clean sheet against Saints in the competition.
  • Crystal Palace have opened the scoring in five of their last six Premier League games against Southampton, losing 2-0 in the other. However, the Eagles have gone on to win just one of those five (D3 L1).
  • Southampton have conceded 19 goals in their last eight Premier League games, conceding at least twice on six occasions in that run (W1 D2 L5). Saints’ only win and clean sheet in this time was a 1-0 home victory against Arsenal.
  • Crystal Palace have failed to score in seven different Premier League away games this season, with only three teams failing in more. However, the Eagles have lost just one of their nine league games when scoring on the road this term (W3 D5).
  • Crystal Palace have drawn 14 Premier League games this season, with no side having more (Brighton also 14). Only in 1992-93 (16) have the Eagles drawn more in a single Premier League campaign.

How to follow: Follow Southampton vs Crystal Palace in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel from 5.15pm.

Watford vs Burnley – Saturday, 3pm

Team news: Relegation-threatened Watford will have defender Kiko Femenia and midfielder Juraj Kucka available for the Premier League clash against fellow battlers Burnley.

The duo both missed last weekend’s 5-1 defeat at Manchester City with minor issues, but have trained this week and are available for selection.

Cucho Hernandez (hamstring) could be ruled out for the rest of the campaign, while Francisco Sierralta (calf) and Samuel Kalu (ankle) continue their own recovery.

Burnley could have both Maxwel Cornet and Jay Rodriguez back in contention as they look to continue their survival push.

Cornet missed last weekend’s victory over Wolves with a knee issue while forward Rodriguez went off during the second half of that game.

Erik Pieters (knee) is expected to begin training next week after two months out, but captain Ben Mee, Johann Berg Gudmundsson (both leg) and Ashley Westwood (ankle) all remain sidelined.

Jones Knows prediction…

Roy Hodgson must miss being retired. His side have won just two of their last 22 games in all competitions and have amassed the fewest home points (7) of any team in the top four divisions of English football. In the home defeat to Brentford, Watford became only the third team to lose 10 consecutive top-flight home games in a row, after Birmingham City in February 1986 and Sunderland in August 2005. Burnley have found form and confidence at just the right team. I would be surprised if Watford can stop them registering another win.

The increased confidence is absolutely flowing through the feet of Dwight McNeil at the moment, who has looked a player reborn in the wins over Southampton and Wolves. The 22-year-old fell down the pecking order under Sean Dyche after struggling with his form. However, under the new boss Mike Jackson, he has had a look with the man in the mirror and revelled in his position off the right where he can cut in. He has fired six shots at goal in his last two appearances with two of those hitting the target.

His shots prices are a strong fancy of mine this weekend against arguably the worst team in the Premier League.

Hwang Hee-chan and Dwight McNeil battle for possession
Image: Hwang Hee-chan and Dwight McNeil battle for possession

Take your pick on him to have two (11/10 with Sky Bet), three (7/2) or four (10/1) shots on goal or roll with the 6/4 with Sky Bet for him to have at least one shot on target. Also, McNeil has had more shots (42) and more shots on target (12) without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season. The last player to have more attempts on target without finding the net in a single season was Jesus Navas in 2014-15 (17). He’s a big price to score at 13/2.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Dwight McNeil to have a shot on target (6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats…

  • After winning their first Premier League home game against Burnley in February 2017, Watford are winless in their last three against the Clarets at Vicarage Road (D1 L2).
  • Watford have failed to score in their last four league games against Burnley; they last failed to score in five in a row against an opponent vs Reading (2004-2006), while the last team Burnley registered five consecutive clean sheets against was Charlton (2013-2016).
  • This is both Watford and Burnley’s 300th Premier League match, with Wolverhampton Wanderers also reaching that milestone today. It’s just the second time two sides are meeting in their 300th game in the competition, after Everton 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur in January 2000.
  • Watford have lost each of their last 10 Premier League home games – no side in top-flight history has ever lost 11 consecutive home league games before.
  • Watford have conceded in each of their last 21 Premier League home games. The last team to have a longer run without a home top-flight clean sheet were Queens Park Rangers (22 games between August 1968 and August 1973).
  • Burnley are unbeaten in their three Premier League games under Michael Jackson so far (W2 D1). The last manager to remain unbeaten in their first four league games in charge of the Clarets was Owen Coyle in 2007, while no manager has ever stayed unbeaten in their first four top-flight games with Burnley.

How to follow: Follow Watford vs Burnley in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel from 5.15pm.

Wolves v Brighton – Saturday, 3pm

Team news: None of Wolves’ injured players are fit enough to return for the visit of Brighton.

Midfielder Ruben Neves has returned to training this week but is not deemed to be fit enough for the weekend. Winger Daniel Podence (foot) and defender Max Kilman (ankle) also continue to miss out.

Brighton are boosted by the return of Yves Bissouma from suspension for the trip to the midlands.

Jeremy Sarmiento has been ruled out by a hamstring problem but it is hoped that Tariq Lamptey will be back from a knee problem. Shane Duffy has been struggling with a thigh issue but he could be ready for a bench role.

Jones Knows prediction…

Graham Potter continues to do a fine job with limited resources at Brighton. His teams do not win enough but his ability to improve footballers and his tactical flexibility is going to land him one of the big jobs one day. His teams do have problems though playing against deep and compact defensive lines. For example, in matches facing Sean Dyche, Roy Hodgson, Nuno Espirito Santo, Bruno Lage, David Moyes, Sam Allardyce and Steven Gerrard – all managers that concentrate on organisation and defensive structure – Potter’s record reads P28 W3 D15 L10.

Wolves deservedly won the reverse fixture 1-0 at the Amex earlier this campaign, soaking up pressure for large parts and hitting decisively on the counter-attack. With the case for under 2.5 goals a very obvious but very strong one to make considering these two sit bottom of the pile for average goals per game, backing a Wolves win and under 2.5 seems a sensible strategy.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Wolves to win and under 2.5 goals (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats…

  • Wolves have won their last two league games against Brighton, as many as they had in their previous 16 against them. They’re looking to complete the league double over the Seagulls for the first time.
  • Brighton won each of their first six away league games against Wolves between 1979 and 1991. However, since then the Seagulls have won just one of their 11 league visits to Molineux (D7 L3), winning 2-0 in April 2017.
  • Wolves are on the longest current run of Premier League games without a draw, with none of their 15 games in 2022 so far ending level (W8 L7).
  • With 18 goals scored and 16 conceded for Wolves at home this season, no ground has seen fewer Premier League goals than Molineux (34). However, half of these strikes have come in the last five games at the stadium (17/34).
  • Only Watford (8) have had fewer different goalscorers in the Premier League than Brighton this season (9, excluding own goals).
  • No player has been booked more often in the Premier League this season than Brighton’s Yves Bissouma, who has been yellow carded 10 times in just 22 appearances. He’s the first ever Brighton player to be booked 10 times in a single Premier League campaign.

How to follow: Follow Wolves vs Brighton in our dedicated live match blog. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel from 5.15pm.

Leeds vs Man City – Saturday, 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports Premier League

Leeds United vs Manchester City

Leeds winger Crysencio Summerville will miss Saturday’s home Premier League game against Manchester City after being ruled out for the rest of the season.

Summerville sustained an ankle injury in training before Monday’s goalless draw at Crystal Palace and will not feature in Leeds’ last five matches.

Midfielder Adam Forshaw (fractured kneecap) and forward Tyler Roberts (hamstring) will not play again this season, while striker Patrick Bamford (foot) is hoping to return to full training next week.

City are again without defenders Kyle Walker and John Stones through injury.

Walker has missed the last four matches with an ankle problem while Stones lasted just 36 minutes on his return to action after a knock against Real Madrid in midweek.

Full-back Joao Cancelo is back in contention after missing Tuesday’s game due to a European suspension.

Jones Knows prediction…

Call me what you like, I’m taking on Manchester City here at 1/4 with Sky Bet.

The money is portraying Pep Guardiola’s team stand an 80 per cent chance of winning this match. I am happy to swim against that tide despite the haunting thoughts of the last time I tipped Leeds to get a result against Manchester City. Pep’s team won 7-0. Gulp.

I am very edgy about City after they have played a Champions League knockout match – a theory which has yielded good profit. There is a pattern emerging of them being vulnerable. After 15 knockout games where that tie was realistically in the balance, they have lost on seven occasions in the next domestic match to Leeds (1-2), Chelsea (0-1), Chelsea (1-2), Wigan (0-1), Manchester United (2-3), Tottenham (2-3) and Liverpool (2-3).

They have conceded a goal in 10 of those 15 encounters, too. Of course, the sample size is pretty small but there does seem a drop in levels after a big midweek effort in Europe where the emotions involved in their pursuit for that elusive trophy do seem to weigh heavy. That can certainly be said for the Real Madrid encounter on Tuesday.

This might be a great time for Leeds to catch them cold and do Liverpool a favour.

Jesse Marsch’s side have kept successive clean sheets and conceded just four goals in their last five Premier League games and have Kalvin Phillips back at the base of their midfield. Since promotion, Leeds have conceded an average of 1.2 goals per 90 minutes with him in the team and 2.6 without him. His influence is gigantic. He can play a leading role in helping Leeds avoid defeat at 11/4 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Leeds to win or draw (11/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Opta stats…

  • Leeds have lost just two of their last nine home league games against Man City (W6 D1), doing so in consecutive meetings in December 1995 (0-1) and September 2000 (1-2).
  • Man City are looking to complete their first league double over Leeds since 1981-82, a season that saw the Whites relegated from the top-flight.
  • Man City won the reverse fixture 7-0 against Leeds – there are three occasions of the Citizens scoring 10+ goals against an opponent within a single Premier League season; Watford in 2019-20 (12), Norwich in 2011-12 (11) and Tottenham in 2013-14 (11).
  • Leeds have conceded at least once in each of their last nine Premier League home games, since a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace in November. Only Watford (21) are on a longer run without a home clean sheet among current Premier League sides.
  • Leeds are looking to keep three consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since August 2002, the third game of which back then was a 3-0 home win against Manchester City.
  • After a run of seven defeats and one draw in eight Premier League games, Leeds are now unbeaten in their last five. They last went six without defeat in April 2021, a run which included a victory over Manchester City.
  • Manchester City remain unbeaten away from home in the Premier League since a 1-0 loss at Tottenham on the opening weekend (W12 D3 since). The Citizens have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four on the road – they’ve never gone five consecutive away league games without conceding before.

Live: SNF

Saturday 30th April 5:00pm

Sky Sports Premier League HD Sky Sports Premier League HD

How to follow: Watch Leeds vs Man City live on Sky Sports Premier League from 5pm; kick-off 5.30pm. Follow the game in our dedicated live match blog, including in-game clips. Highlights will also be published on the Sky Sports digital platforms and the Sky Sports Football YouTube channel shortly after full time.

How the table stands

How to watch Premier League highlights on Sky Sports Digital

Anybody in the UK can watch highlights for free on the Sky Sports app or the Score Centre app on your iPhone or Android:

To watch the highlights on the Sky Sports App, download the app:

Sky Sports’ digital platforms are the home of live blogs for every Premier League game, including commentary, analysis and team line-ups. Users with a free Sky ID can watch in-game clips from Sky live games in our dedicated live blogs.

How to watch with Sky Sports YouTube

Head over to Sky Sports Football YouTube channel to watch highlights for free.

You’ll be able to enjoy action from all 380 Premier League games, as well as classic Premier League moments, goal compilations, in-depth analysis and exclusive player interviews.

Since launching in 2017 the channel has amassed over 2.5m subscribers, and also houses Football League highlights and Nations League goals.

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